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Our customers are always coming up with unique challenges for us to make their homes one of a kind. Unfortunately, it may take a real estate contraction for the rest of the country to finally wake up and start addressing our overall economic situation. However, housing speculation is still rampant further creating a false sense of security while doing absolutely nothing to the economic benefit of all Canadians.

Therefore, this is our chart of One that we hope catches the attention of those driving fiscal and monetary policy. The OECD leading indicator has declined now for 21 consecutive months to a ten-year low. If you are bullish on risk-assets, have a different reason than a constructive outlook for the economy — liquidity, momentum, or sentiment. The fundamental macro outlook is clouded in to say the least. Gross domestic product GDP per capita is easy to figure out, but its importance is less obvious.

GDP per capita, is the value of those goods and services, divided by the population. For the most part, it only tells us if GDP is getting higher, and if the government has control. GDP per capita on the other hand, gives us an idea of how the population is doing. If it goes higher, living standards are likely to improve.

Or if you and your neighbour are seeing a deteriorating standard of living? Real GDP grew 1.

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That means the population is growing faster than the output of the economy. To contrast, the month growth was 2. This past summer markets experienced a growth scare. Bonds throughout the world went bid in a mad scramble as investors desperately tried to buy fixed-income to lock in the quickly diminishing yields. Worries that economic activity would collapse sent yields plummeting. In a regular economic environment, short-term fixed-income instrument yield less than longer ones.

However, when markets are concerned that a recession is right around the corner, investors rush into longer-dated bonds pushing those yields below the short-term rates. This inversion of the yield curve has been one of the best economic signals for forecasting future economic activity. Canada is the only country in the developed world with an inverted yield curve. The difference between our yield curve and the rest of the world is almost as wide as it has ever been during the past couple of decades. Once this index crosses the yellow threshold, recession odds become more of a coin toss.

The current pattern points to lower near-term growth in the one per cent to two per cent range, but not an outright contraction. Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have created a positive impulse into housing and consumer spending. After 11 years of recession and slow recovery, real GDP since has not risen any faster than during the 11 years after the Great Depression began in in Canada. This despite unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus in Canada and in the major G7 nations. It is a damning critique of modern macroeconomics that despite all the tools, data and analysis that have been developed since the s, policymakers were not able to improve on the performance of the economy during the s.

While the worst of the initial contraction after was averted, this came at the price of years of subdued economic growth. A temporary ceasefire between the U. Interestingly, our Canada Growth GPS, as indicated by the green line, has shown a steady pickup in recent months alongside the improvement in global financial conditions.

Under the Paris agreement, Canada committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 30 per cent below the level of Mt CO2 eq by The challenge facing the Trudeau government is significant, and will likely occupy a lot of his attention during this minority government. Prime Minister Trudeau will face pressure from the left to strengthen our policies and likely also our targets and pressure from the right not to increase costs on Canadians or further constrain resource development.